🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."